วันอังคารที่ 26 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2552

Phillip Online Stock Trading In Thailand Recommends Buy GFPT

GFPT – GFPT - BUY

Target price : Bt27.25
Recommendation : BUY
Closing Price (8 April 09) : Bt18.30

1Q09 earnings to continue rising on a YoY basis
- Though Thai broiler exports fell 10.13% YoY in the first two months of 2009, we expect GFPT, Thailand's second largest publicly traded poultry exporter to deliver net profit of Bt127m in 1Q09, up 17% YoY but down 59% QoQ.

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- We estimate GFPT's 2009 net profit to be about Bt571m, down 47% YoY as a result of lower selling prices along with declining raw materials prices.
- At current levels, GFPT is trading at an undemanding valuation and dividend yields also remain high. We maintain a BUY stance on GFPT with a 2009 price target of Bt27.25/share.

1Q09 net profit expected to be Bt127m, up 17% YoY
GFPT management has guided for a 10% YoY rise in sales volume and average selling prices in 1Q09. Much of the growth would contribute to an increase in production capacity of cooked chicken. Even though average selling prices are predicted to fall on the quarter, the figures are expected to be higher than in the same year-ago quarter. Sales volume and average selling prices are forecast to drop 20% QoQ in the face of deteriorating economic conditions. The number of public holidays in Europe cut shipments to EU by up to 25.6% from the same quarter in 2008. Exports to Japan in volume terms rose sequentially by 13.7%, benefiting from China's tainted food crisis. Our forecast assumes sales of Bt2,412m in 1Q09, up 9% YoY but down 20% QoQ. Higher average selling prices should lift profitability on a YoY basis. We estimate GFPT's 1Q09 net profit to come in at Bt127m, up 17% YoY but down 59% QoQ.

2009 net profit expected to come in at Bt571m, down 47% YoY
Our 2009 estimates assume that falling raw materials prices would cut into average selling prices under a cost plus pricing structure. The slumping economy would drag down sales volume as a result of sagging demand. We forecast 2009 sales to be flat YoY at Bt10,955m. Sales volume is expected to keep rising, especially in the Japanese market but average selling prices tend to fall. In our view, profitability would deteriorate on a YoY basis, as GFPT is unlikely to benefit from a dramatic rise in average selling prices as in the year-ago period. We expect GFPT's 2009 net profit to come in at Bt571m, down 47% YoY.

BUY recommendation with 2009 price target of Bt27.25/share
Though the weakened economic environment would take a bite out of earnings, we maintain a bullish view on the food-related sector as it is expected to be less hit by economic downturn than any other industry on the grounds that food is a basic necessity of life. GFPT's 1Q09 earnings are also expected to continue rising on a YoY basis, bucking the overall economic downturn. Valuation looks undemanding. At current levels, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio of a mere 4x. GFPT is also considered as one of the high dividend yielding stocks, in our opinion. We keep a BUY stance on GFPT. Our 2009 price target is unchanged at Bt27.25./share, based on a P/E multiple of 6x.

By Phillip Securities (Thailand) Plc. on Apr 9, 2009

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